Pipeline board

Theses move left-to-right as conviction hardens. Drag a card across a column boundary to advance it; the system asks for evidence before the move sticks.

Card detail · EV-CHG

Open thesis card. Capabilities, attached targets, and the rolling timeline that earned the current stage.

EV-CHG · t1

EV fleet charging infrastructure

M. Cheng · Active · last edited Apr 18, 2026

Stage · ActiveInorganic (M&A)Now · 0–12 moRTP 0.82Conv 0.78

Depot footprint, dealer channel, and SiC inverter capacity at Reno give a defensible right-to-play. Voltaira's rumored Series D mark closes the window — advance to LOI within 30 days or accept double the price.

Capabilities cited

c3 · Fleet logistics: 1,400 depots NA+EU · strength 0.84 · primary
c5 · Dealer channel: $2.1B fleet GMV/yr · strength 0.88 · primary
c8 · Power electronics: SiC inverters, Reno fab · strength 0.78 · supporting

Capital envelope

Modeled: $0.9B – $1.4B
CFO acknowledged: $1.0B base, $1.5B stretch (Apr 14)
Funding: Cash + revolver capacity

Attached targets

Pri	Name	HQ	Rev	EV/Rev	Note
A	Voltaira Networks	Austin TX	184	2.2×	DC fast-charge + telematics SDK
B	Northwind Charging	Calgary CA	96	3.4×	Depot CPO, fleet-only
B	Switchback Power	Denver CO	122	2.5×	Mid-power chargers
B	ReCharge Systems	Lyon FR	74	2.8×	Class-6/7 retrofit kits

Timeline

Apr 25

Signal · Voltaira Series D rumored at $1.2B post — Reuters

Apr 23

Decision · IC chair set 30-day LOI deadline

Apr 22

Diligence · Cannibalization peer review opened (R. Okafor)

Apr 21

Diligence · Voltaira IOI submitted at $1.05B

Apr 18

Move · EV-CHG promoted Validated → Active (M. Cheng)

Apr 18

Signal · DOE NEVI round-3 awards — 8 of 14 in Acme depot states

Apr 11

Diligence · Northwind exploratory call

Apr 04

Move · EV-CHG promoted Explore → Validated (M. Cheng)

Stage gate

A thesis is being advanced. The gate enumerates the evidence required and the disqualifiers that must not be true. Nothing moves until both pages clear.

Advance EV-CHG to Pursuing

Active→PursuingRequested by M. Cheng · Apr 25 14:32

Evidence required

✓

Priority-A target identified

Voltaira Networks (A) · IOI submitted Apr 21 at $1.05B · cleared

✓

Right-to-play ≥ 0.75

Current: 0.82 (depots c3 0.84, dealer c5 0.88, electronics c8 0.78) · cleared

✓

CFO budget envelope acknowledged

$1.0B base / $1.5B stretch acknowledged Apr 14 · cleared

✓

≥ 3 reviewer endorsements

M. Cheng, R. Okafor (with conditions), S. Patel · cleared

Cannibalization analysis complete

R. Okafor's peer review opened Apr 22; due 12 May. Provisional pass — final result conditions Pursuing → Decided move.

Outside-counsel HSR pre-clearance

Not yet requested. Required before Pursuing per CorpDev SOP §3.4. Routes automatically on save.

Evidence narrative

The IOI is in market. The window is real (signals SIG-2431, SIG-2438). Reviewer dispersion is low (σ 0.06). The single open item — HSR pre-clearance — is procedural, not substantive. Recommend conditional advance pending counsel sign-off by 4 May.

Disqualifiers (must not be true)

None currently triggered.

If any of the following become true after the move, the system will surface a "regression review" prompt: (a) cannibalization model finds dealer GP exposure > 80 bps; (b) two or more Voltaira top-five contracts contain change-of-control termination rights; (c) NEVI round-four pull-forward of states outside Acme's depot map; (d) Voltaira accepts a competing offer.

4 of 6 cleared · 1 conditional · 1 will route on save