| # | CODE | THESIS | STAGE | VERDICT | RTP | CONVICTION | HORIZON | TAM | OWNER | UPDATED | TGTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGGREGATE · 6 ROWS | 0.629 | 0.593 | Now: 2 · Next: 2 · Later: 2 | Coverage 8/8 capabilities cited | 10 | ||||||
| CAP | DESCRIPTION | STRENGTH | USED IN | UTILIZATION |
|---|
Acme's 1,400-depot service network and Tier-1 dealer access make depot charging a defensible right-to-play; SiC inverter capacity at the Reno fab gives a vertical-cost edge of ~14% on installed power.
Window of advantage is narrow — DOE NEVI round-3 awards landed in 8 of 14 Acme depot states (signal SIG-2418, Apr 18). Voltaira Networks Series D rumored at $1.2B post (SIG-2431, Apr 25), suggesting incumbent valuations are re-rating up. Recommendation: advance Voltaira to LOI within 30 days; open second-source conversation with Northwind Charging as backup.
Risk: dealer-channel cannibalization if charging is bundled at point of vehicle sale. Mitigation modeled in TM-2026-04-22 (R. Okafor).
| CAP | NAME | WEIGHT | EVIDENCE | CITED IN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| c3 | Fleet logistics network | 0.84 | 12 depots/state ave. | SIG-2418, IC-2026-04-23 |
| c5 | Commercial dealer channel | 0.88 | $2.1B fleet GMV | DEAL-2026-Q1, IC-2026-04-23 |
| c8 | Power electronics fab | 0.78 | 400k SiC units/yr | CFO-2026-Q1 |
| TGT | NAME | HQ | REV $M | EBITDA | EV/REV | MCAP $M | PRI | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| g1 | Voltaira Networks | Austin TX | 184 | 22 | 2.2× | 410 | A | DC fast-charge + telematics SDK |
| g4 | Northwind Charging | Calgary CA | 96 | 8 | 3.4× | 330 | B | Depot CPO, fleet-only, 11k stalls |
| g6 | ReCharge Systems | Lyon FR | 74 | 9 | 2.8× | 210 | B | Class-6/7 retrofit kits |
| g10 | Switchback Power | Denver CO | 122 | 18 | 2.5× | 305 | B | Mid-power chargers + retrofit installer net |